| Objective: To construct nomogram prediction model for the risk of osteoporosis in health examination population based on serum uric acid(UA), vitamin D and cystatin C(CysC). Methods: 1082 healthy subjects who underwent bone mineral density examination in our hospital from January 2022 to December 2023 were selected, they were divided into osteoporosis group and non-osteoporosis group according to the occurrence of osteoporosis. The serum UA, vitamin D and CysC levels and the characteristics of the two groups were compared, the influencing factors of osteoporosis were analyzed by multivariate logistic regression, and a risk prediction model was established, the predictive value of the nomogram prediction model for the risk of osteoporosis in healthy physical examination population was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results: There were 151 osteoporosis patients in 1082 subjects, the incidence of osteoporosis was 13.96% (P<0.05). Compared with non-osteoporosis group, the serum UA and vitamin D levels in osteoporosis group were significantly decreased, and the CysC level was significantly increased (P<0.05). Female, older age, total cholesterol (TC) increased, fasting blood glucose (FBG) increased and CysC increased were risk factors for osteoporosis, UA increased and vitamin D increased were protective factors (P<0.05). A prediction model was constructed based on the above influencing factors, Bootstrap (B=1000) verification results showed that, the Bias-corrected prediction curve basically coincided with the Ideal line, and the consistency index (C-index) was 0.786, indicating that the model had good prediction ability. The area under the curve (AUC) of the prediction model for the risk of osteoporosis in healthy physical examination population was 0.809 (95%CI=0.767~0.861). The threshold probability range of the model was 0.03~0.89, and its net return rate was >0, which was higher than that of the invalid lines. Conclusion: Serum CysC increased are the risk factors of osteoporosis, UA increased and vitamin D increased are protective factors. The nomogram prediction model based on the above indicators has a high predictive value for osteoporosis in healthy physical examination population. |
